Cosmic Rays and Climate Change

LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

EXPLANATION OF THE GRAPH:

The data obtained from the studies of Khandekar, Kreutz, NASA and NOAA reveal that the global tropospheric temperature is dropping again, whereas the CO2 level has been more or less steady from 2001.

The linear graph shows a global warming from approximately 800 AD to 1100 AD. From 1100 until 1998, the fluctuations in the world-wide tropospheric temperatures continued within the normal patterns.

There was a period of global warming from 1910 to 1940 comparable to the recovery of the Little Ice Age that occurred from 1500 to 1550.

From November 1940 to February 1977, the global tropospheric temperature underwent a cooling. In January 1967 snow covered nearly the whole Northern Hemisphere.

There was a period of global warming from 1977 to 2005, a bit lower than the Global Warming prior to the Little Ice Age (from 800 to 1100).

This year (2006), the Tropospheric Temperature goes back to a cooling similiar to 1960. The year 2006 has been one of the coldest years since 1997.

Our Global Warming has lasted less than that of the Medieval Age; in addition, the positive fluctuations did not even reach the highest levels that occurred during the Medieval Age.

Please, take the necessary safety precautions for this winter season. Save water and fuels, shelter yourself and take care if you ignite gas heaters, coal heaters, or wood-burning stoves. If you use organic fuels ( i.e., wood, pellets, etc.) for home heating, remember to maintain proper ventilation with outdoor air.

NEVER LEAVE IGNITED FLAMES UNATTENDED WHEN YOU GO TO SLEEP. NEVER LEAVE YOUR HOUSE WITH HEATERS IGNITED!

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LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

INTERPRETATION OF THE GRAPH:

This comparative graph about the effects of Solar Irradiance (SI) upon Tropospheric Temperature (TT) versus Carbon Dioxide (CO2) upon TT clearly demonstrates that the observed Δ TT depends almost exclusively of the SI, instead of on the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The red shaded area in the graph indicates the deviation of the TT observed in nature with respect to the expected temperatures from the algorithm applied by the IPCC that was adopted for delineating the Kyoto Protocol (:: Δ TT - :: Δ [CO2]). The discrepancy between the real Δ TT is 1.124, which is a very high uncertainty that allows us to reject the hypothesis about the anthropogenic cause of the increase in the atmospheric CO2 and the Global Warming.

The violet shaded area represents the deviation of the TT observed in nature with respect to the expected temperatures starting off from the algorithm that implies the law of Stefan-Boltzmann and the deviation of the SI (TTf :: TTi - SIf :: SIi) obtained from the investigation of Judith Lean and colleagues and the team of NOAA/NGDC. The discrepancy between Δ TT observed in nature vs. the Δ TT expected by applying the Law of Stefan-Boltzmann for Δ RS is 0.08, which is into the acceptable parameters of uncertainty. From this, we infer that so the increase in the concentration of gases with a high Specific Heat (CO2, Methane, steam, etc.) as the past and the current Global Warming are generated by the positive fluctuations in SI, the precession of the equinoxes and, probably by the small alteration that underwent the terrestrial axis as a result of the Indonesian Tsunami, which happened on December 28, 2006 (a fluctuation of ca. 0.02”).

Something extremely important, evidenced by this graph, is that the CO2 concentration began to increase during the Maunder Minimum, perhaps by the great amount of atmospheric dust that obstructed the solar light until reaching the photosynthetic systems with an adequate intensity or a specific wavelength for the process. When the increase of CO2 started, there were neither automobiles nor human industries, and the world human population was very small (about 100 million persons in the world).

Nasif Nahle

Director

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LEFT CLICK ON THE GRAPH FOR AN OPTIMIZED IMAGE.

This graph of the means of Δ Solar Irradiance (Δ SI) -obtained by Judith Lean and colleagues, and the team of NOAA/NGDC-, the observed Δ TT and the Δ CO2 atmospheric concentration demonstrates that the deviation (orange shaded area) of the observed (actual) Δ TT from the Δ TT integrated to the concentration of CO2 is negative and its amplitude is very high as to be taken into account like the cause of the real global warming.

In the other hand, the deviation (sky-blue shaded area) of the observed (actual) Δ TT from the Δ TT integrated for the Δ SI is into the accepted deviations due to the change in emissivity-absorption of the air by water vapor, dust, mitigating agents, reflecting surfaces, etc.

The Δ TT, the Δ [CO2] and the Δ SI have been obtained from observation of nature and Physics experimentation. So I am confident on saying that the current Global Warming is a natural phenomena, not provoked by humans, but by cyclic fluctuations of Solar Irradiance, input of Cosmic Rays, volcanism, winds, changes in the equatorial precession, etc.

Nasif Nahle

Director

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WILL 2007 BE WARMER THAN 2006?

At the beginning of the last year, Jim Hansen said the same about 2006; he was wrong, 2006 was the coldest year in the last five years. If you analyze the note from the newspapers you will find that the prognosis also was endorsed by this Democrat personage, Jim Hansen. But this is not the significant issue. Simply, we cannot predict systematically that 2007 will be a year hotter than 2006.

We can advance that 2007 COULD BE a warmer year than 2006 by the influence of El Niño because, according to our observations, the years with El Niño have been warmer than the years without the natural El Niño Oceanic Oscillation (ENSO). In the news it is also mentioned that everything obeys to the “Global Warming caused by the Greenhouse Gases produced by human activities”; nevertheless, that is tendentious and false information given that the phenomenon El Niño does not have any association with the “Global Warming”, nor with the “Climate Change”.

Perhaps you have already noticed that NASA prognosticated a more powerful solar period than the previous periods observed of Solar Activity (read the note here: http://science.nasa.gov). This makes the history or “prediction” of Jim Hansen and his associates to be a truculent and untrustworthy note because people know that the Sun is the source of energy for the whole Solar System.

Judith Lean made a reconstruction of the Intensity of the Solar Radiation for NOAA and she found that for the last 400 years the Intensity has been increasing considerably (0.202%). The change found by Judith Lean was 3.27 W/square meter. From the experimental data, the terrestrial tropospheric temperature increases 0.175 C by each W/square meter emitted by the Sun or coming from the Interstellar Medium, which would totalize a change of 0.61 C, a change that coincides with the change experienced by the atmospheric temperature (0.62 C) in the last 400 years.

Live unafraid. We think that we must stop pollution, deforestation, etc.; but we must not to say lies nor distort science for terrifying the people.

M. E. Velazquez

Representatives

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ABOUT GRAPHS AND DATA

The climate models are only a pale and inconsistent reflects of reality, that is to say, merely speculation and guess made with a computer. As a biologist I only handle observable and verifiable natural phenomena, considering only those facts that anybody can confirm observationally or empirically. Nobody can predict a natural phenomenon without considering all the variables that determine the phenomenon. There are always variables in natural processes that we have not identified; consequently, nobody is able to model nature as if the model was the real world. It does not mean that the phenomenon does not have subjacent causes, but that we do not know the microstates that are giving rise to the phenomenon.

Modelers can change any variable or variables at will (I’ve seen they even changing physics laws). For that reason, they usually compare the CO2 with a black body, when the CO2 is not more than a gray body, not very efficient to retain heat.

It has been empirically demonstrated that water is much more efficient to retain heat because it absorbs heat slowly and emits it slowly. The CO2 and the methane are gases that quickly absorb heat and quickly emit it. You can consult any book on Heat Transfer or Classic Physics to verify it.

That is the reason by which I do not handle the CO2 and other “greenhouse” gases like the starting point of “global warming”. Semantically, the concept “global warming” is pseudoscientific because it is not a “warming”, but a fluctuation in the temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere. As it goes up, it goes down also. It’s not a flat linear function.

Fluctuations of Earth’s temperature have always occurred since the planet was formed. In not very ancient times (300,000 to 50,000 years ago) the fluctuations of the temperature of the planet oscillated by10 °C; however, nowadays the fluctuations have not rose beyond 0.62 °C. It is valid if we include the fluctuation given through the Medieval Period because in the last 200 years the fluctuations have not been higher than 0.52 °C (averaged change of temperature in1998). When a scientist talk about the enormous fluctuations of the atmospheric temperatures given in ancient ages, those who wish to maintain the terror in the world get enraged because the records that contradict their truculent plots have been accepted and demonstrated through several reliable methodologies.

I’ve shown here four models of the possible changes in the atmospheric temperature that are more congruent with reality than those from the IPCC. The creators of the program to obtain hypothetical models are Dr. David Archer and Jeremy Archer, of the University of Chicago. The two professionals are serious and honest scientists, and I think that they have not been influenced by politics or economical torques. You can verify their work and confirm that they fit their program as well as they could, so you could only obtain approximate results to reality. There are many exaggerations in some data introduced to the program derived from the unknown variables that have an effect on real phenomena, but we must to consider that these are merely hypothetical models that can be confronted with the results obtained through observation-experimentation and applying the Laws of Thermodynamics.

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BIBLIOGRAPHY AND EXTERNAL RESOURCES

Highly Recommended External Sources in Internet:

http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/sun_output_030320.html

http://mars.jpl.nasa.gov/odyssey/newsroom/pressreleases/20031208a.html

Temperature Variability by NOAA/NASA/JPL/GSFC.

Stone, E. C., et all. Voyager 1 Explores the Termination Shock Region and the Heliosheat Beyond. Science, Vol. 309, Issue 5743, 2017-2020, 23 September 2005.

Lyman, J. M., Willis, J. K. and Johnson, G. C. Recent Cooling of the Upper Ocean. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 33, L18604, doi: 10.1029/2006GL027033, 20 September 2006.

Witze, Alexandra. Shallow fuels bring bad news. Buried deposits of greenhouse gases may be more unstable than thought. Nature on Line. 12 December 2006.

DOI: 10.1038/news061211-6. http://www.nature.com/news/2006/061211/full/061211-6.html.

Indermuhle, A., Monnin, E., Stauffer, B. and Stocker, T.F. 2000. Atmospheric CO2 concentration from 60 to 20 kyr BP from the Taylor Dome ice core, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 735-738.

Petit, J.R., Jouzel, J., Raynaud, D., Barkov, N.I., Barnola, J.-M., Basile, I., Bender, M., Chappellaz, J., Davis, M., Delaygue, G., Delmotte, M., Kotlyakov, V.M., Legrand, M., Lipenkov, V.Y., Lorius, C., Pepin, L., Ritz, C., Saltzman, E., and Stievenard, M. 1999. Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Antarctica. Nature 399: 429-436.

Dahl-Jensen, D.; Mosegaard, K.; Gundestrup, N.; Clow, G. D.; Johnsen, S. J.; Hansen, A. W.; Balling, N. Past Temperatures Directly from the Greenland Ice Sheet. Science 9 October 1998: Vol. 282. No. 5387, pp. 268 – 271. DOI: 10.1126/science.282.5387.268.

Lean, Judith. 2004. Solar Irradiance Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2004-035. NOAA/NGDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA.

Boucot, A.J, Xu, C. and Scotese, C.R.. 2004. Phanerozoic climate zones and paleogeography with a consideration of atmospheric CO2 levels. Paleontology Journal, v. 38, p. 115-122.

http://sarv.gi.ee/igcp503/index.php

M. L. Khandekar et al. The Global Warming Debate: A Review of the State of Science. Pure Applied Geophysics; 162 (2005).

K. J. Kreutz et al. Bipolar Changes in Atmospheric Circulation During the Little Ice Age. Science; Vol. 277, issue 5330; pp. 1294-1296. 29 Aug. 1997.

Keith R. Briffa and Timothy J. Osborn. PALEOCLIMATE: Blowing Hot and Cold. Science; Vol. 295; issue 5563; pp. 2227-2228. 22 March 2002.

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Decker, R. B. et al. Voyager 1 in the Foreshock, Termination Shock, and Heliosheat. Science; Vol. 309, pp 2020-2024. 23 September, 2005.

The Sun Does a Flip. NASA's Website:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast15feb_1.htm. Last reading on November 8th, 2005.

Cracks in Earth's Magnetic Shield. NASA's Website:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2003/03dec_magneticcracks.htm. Last reading on November 7th, 2005.

The Solar Wind at Mars. NASA's Website:

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2001/ast31jan_1.htm. Last reading on October 28, 2005.

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http://www.friendsofscience.org/index.php?ide=4. Last reading on October 18, 2005.

Vidal-Madjar, A.; Laurent, C.; Bruston, P.; Audouze, J. Is the Solar System Entering a Nearby Interstellar Cosmic Cloud. The Astrophysical Journal. Vol. 223; pp. 589-600. July 15, 1978. Website: http://adsabs.harvard.edu. Last reading on December 05, 2006.

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INICIO DE PÁGINA ^^

CLICK ON THE DIAGRAM TO SEE A LARGER IMAGE

The graph of Interstellar He nucleons was reproduced from E. C. Stone et al. Voyager 1 Explores the Termination Shock Region and the Heliosheat Beyond. Science; Vol. 309, Issue 5743, 2017-2020, 23 September 2005.

The graph of the oscillations in the Tropospheric Temperature was reproduced from the daily reports of NOAA/NASA. I have reproduced both graphs for the correlation between the Interstellar Cosmic Rays and the "Global Warming" is clear.

Each peak of the energy released in the Bow Shock corresponds to an increase of the deviation of the terrestrial atmosphere temperature from the standard temperature, and most of the decreases in the energy released in the Bow Shock corresponds to a trough in the line of the Earth’s tropospheric temperature. There are some regions of the graph where apparently do not correspond with the variability of the terrestrial tropospheric temperature; this obeys to the interference produced by the Solar Activity, which propels regions of magnetism right through the Sunspots maximums that protect the Earth, as from the excesses of Intergalactic Cosmic Radiation as from the local Solar Wind also. However, the magnetic protection for the Earth diminishes considerably during the sunspots minima.

The Solar System is moving in an orbit around the Milky Way at a speed of 217.22 Km/s. The Solar System completes one lap around the Milky Way each 226 million years. Ther is another swinging movement of the solar system inward and outward the center of the galaxy; by this movement, the Solar System advances 1,728,000 Km per day through the cold space. This is the 8,593.75 fraction of the whole distance from the Earth to the Solar System’s Bow Shock. A cold particle of the intergalactic cosmic radiation would cross this distance in 1.2 hours.

The negative amplitudes are higher than the positive amplitudes from June 2003 to January 2006 -taken the standard line (red dashed line); the last means that, from June 2003 to date (February 2007), there has been a cooling rather than a warming.

The present variability in the tropospheric temperature of Earth is directly attributable to the instability of the intensity of ICR, which include He++ and H+ nucleons and electrons. The long and the short intervals match unexpectedly.

Nasif Nahle

Biologist